Estimation of Market Size (Logistics Curve)


N's spirit Basic MBA > Estimation of Market Size (Logistics Curve)

Estimation of Market Size (Logistics Curve)

Logistics Curve shows temporal change in market size or penetration rate. In this curve, growth rate of market size is lower in introduction and maturity stage and is higher in growth stage.

The following graph is typical Logistics Curve.

Logistics Curve


Formula of Logistics Curve

Y = S / (1 + a * exp(-bt) )

Y: Market size
S: Limitation of market size of a product
a,b: Coefficient
t: Time (normally, it shows year)


For example, when market size of bike in a target country is estimated based on that of another country as benchmark, Logistics Curve of bike in benchmark country should be clarified.

After that, limitation of market size should be clarify in a target country and then, Logistics Curve can be clarified by using Coefficient a and b calculated in benchmark country. More than two countries can be used as benchmark.

Logistics Curve


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B2B Marketing 1
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Estimation of Market Size
Estimation of Market Size (ATAR model)
Estimation of Market Size (Logistic curve)
Estimation of Market Size(BASS model)
Stage Gate System


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N's spirit Basic MBA > Estimation of Market Size (Logistics Curve)

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